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February 18, 2000

MARKETING

By Bryce Myrick
Director, TFB Agricultural Marketing Education

As you plan for crop planting in 2000, many factors will have an effect on commodity prices. To help you with a marketing plan, here are some things to consider in wheat, corn, soybeans, and cotton.

U.S. wheat planted acreage will probably be down 1 percent, and with dry weather in the Plains, wheat production should be down nearly 200 million bushels. You may have an opportunity to market wheat in March—April around $3.30-$3.35 for July futures.

World production corn will be up in 2000. U.S. planted acreage should be steady. Use any spring rally as a marketing opportunity.

Soybean planted acreage will be near record levels in the U.S. South America is still the key in bean prices. Prices will probably be better in 2000 than in 1999, but be careful.

With an estimated 18.5 million bale production, U.S. carryover should increase. This may create a scenario where the world price increases and U.S. price does not, causing lower LDP payments. Be prepared to lock in December futures.

To set up workshops or for help with your hedging needs, call 254-751-2242 or 915-698-0355 or e-mail: bbmyrick@swconnect.com.

ChartWheat021800.jpg (34544 bytes)

July - KC Wheat
Fundamentals: Dry in the Plains; Exports Good
Technical Analysis: Trend—Short Term Down; Resistance—3.16; Support—3.01

ChartSoy021800.jpg (35341 bytes)

November-Soybeans
Fundamentals: Weather in South America is Big Factor
Technical Analysis: Trend—Up; Resistance—5.51; Support—5.22

ChartCorn021800.jpg (34804 bytes)

September—Corn
Fundamentals: Increase World Production
Technical Analysis: Trend—Flat after 30 day increase; Resistance—2.48; Support—2.38

ChartCotton021800.jpg (34135 bytes)

December - Cotton
Fundamentals: Exports Good—Lower World Production
Technical Analysis: Trend—Flat after 30 day increase; Resistance—60.95; Support—53.80