March 3, 2000

Although some old-timers across the state are saying the current drought is worse than the drought of 1955-56, historical records say otherwise.

It’s not that bad yet, said Dr. John Nielsen-Gammon, acting climatologist for the state of Texas.

"If we don’t get rain for another two months, then it will be comparable," said Nielsen-Gammon, associate professor with the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at Texas A&M University.

With a shortage of moisture across the state, the current drought does have some features in common with the drought of 1955-56. Whereas the rainless months of most droughts fall during the late spring and summer, both the 1955-56 drought and the current drought have been characterized by a dry fall and winter.

Though the state could receive substantial rains this springs, the odds are slightly in favor of the drought continuing.

Based on the strength of La Nina, Nielsen-Gammon put the chances the drought will continue at 60/40: that is, 60 percent of the drought to continue for at least another couple of months.

Climatologists refer to abnormally cold sea-surface temperatures stretching from the coast of South America across the eastern tropical Pacific as a "La Nina episode." There has been a strong "La Nina episode" present since the summer of 1998.

While the strength of La Nina has varied since that year, the pool of cold water has recently re-intensified. Climatologists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecast it to remain in place until at least spring 2000.

The colder than normal water of La Nina reduces the number and strength of tropical thunderstorms in its area. The reduced tropical thunderstorms in turn affect circulation patterns over the United States. The path of the jet stream across North America is altered, giving differing parts of the country more or less storms than usual.

Not only is it more likely the drought will continue through the spring, new research indicates producers might do well to plan for drought rather than plan against it.

A study by U.S. Department of Agriculture researchers looked at long-term variations in precipitation from Nebraska southward through northern and eastern Texas. The study shows the past 20 years or so have been very wet compared to the rest of the century. Moreover, the 20-year wet period is unmatched in historical weather records. In other words, what is seen as a series of droughts since 1995 may be more of the norm than the exception.

The USDA researchers noted that farmers and ranchers who know they are in the middle of a wet period may be able to take advantage of increased rainfall.