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January 5, 2001

MARKETING

By Bryce Myrick
Director, TFB Agricultural Marketing Education

All too often when producers look at commodity prices, they focus on supply. While we should continue to look at crop projection size and carry-overs, we should also look at demand. Everyone knows that world wheat supply is down, but we have not had a price increase. The reason is we have not had a demand increase. At the present time, fat cattle supply is higher, but we also have a very strong demand for beef. This has created higher cattle prices.

In world markets, China is trying to sell lots of low quality cotton and out-of-condition corn before entry into the WTO. Pacific Rim countries are buying soybeans and meal. The U.S. dollar is down nearly 10 percent in the last 90 days.

There will be times in 2001 when demand will pay a premium for good quality U.S. agriculture products. At that time, we need to be good marketers.

To set up workshops or for help with your hedging needs, call 254-751-2242 or 915-698-0355 or e-mail: bbmyrick@swconnect.com.

April - Feeder Cattle

Fundamentals: With 750 lb. feeders bringing $95, will they break even in 150 days?
Technical Analysis: Trend—Up/Resistance—90.00/Support—85.80

May - KC Wheat

Fundamentals: Cheaper U.S. dollar could help exports—winter wheat conditions suspect.
Technical Analysis: Trend—Sideways/Resistance—3.46/Support—3.21

April - Live Cattle

Fundamentals: Demand Excellent
Technical Analysis: Trend—Up/Resistance—78.70/Support—72.00

May - Cotton

Fundamentals: Good quality U.S. cotton will be in demand in 2001.
Technical Analysis: Trend—Sideways/Resistance—70.10/Support—64.80