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April 6, 2001

MARKETING

By Bryce Myrick
Director, TFB Agricultural Marketing Education

Where are the commodity prices headed for the next six months? This is a hard question to answer, but using a 10 percent move indicator may help.

Take current futures commodity prices and look at them from both a bull's and a bear's view. Remember, we are in a global market, not a U.S. or regional market. Add 10 percent to the current price and analyze what it would take to move prices up to that figure. Now subtract 10 percent from the current price and try to analyze what negative news would push prices down the 10 percent.

Here are some commodities to consider:

Current
73.82
50.95
4.35
2.23

+10%
81.00
56.00
4.78
2.45

-10%
66.00
46.00
3.92
2.01

Oct. Live Cattle
Dec. Cotton
Sept. Soybeans
Sept. Corn

Using the 10 percent rule may help you with your 2001 commodity marketing.

To set up workshops or for help with your hedging needs, call 254-751-2242 or 915-698-0355 or e-mail: bbmyrick@swconnect.com.

SEPTEMBER - CORN

Fundamentals: Foot and Mouth Disease raises questions about feed demand.
Technical Analysis: Trend—Down/Resistance—2.38/Support—2.20

JULY - KC WHEAT

Fundamentals: Exports good, but corn and beans pulling wheat down.
Technical Analysis: Trend—Down/Resistance—3.42/Support—3.14

SEPTEMBER - FEEDER CATTLE

Fundamentals: Foot and Mouth Disease causing uncertainty in world livestock market.
Technical Analysis: Short-term—Down/Resistance—88.30/Support—87.15

DECEMBER - COTTON

Fundamentals: Weak U.S. Demand—Weak world economy—strong dollar.
Technical Analysis: Trend—Down/Resistance—53.10/Support—none