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May 18, 2001

Over the past month, export quotes for #2 HRW FOB Gulf have increased about $4 per ton to $135 in early March. World wheat trade in 2000/01 is forecast nearly identical to last month.

Global rice trade for 2001 is projected at 22.4 million tons, down marginally from the previous year. Global ending stocks in 2000/01 are forecast to decline 4.4 million tons as nearly flat world consumption oversteps declining world production (on a milled basis).

As world exportable supply remains in excess of import demand, global stocks weigh heavy on the market. Price quotes for Thai 100B and Viet 5 percent, as well as other Asian qualities, have declined in the past few weeks due to increased price competition as the Philippines tenders to buy 400,000 MT of milled rice.

Similarly, export price quotes for U.S. long grain #2/4 percent have declined slightly over the past four weeks to $276 (FAS) per ton while medium grain #1/4 California rice quotes are holding $220 per ton, unchanged in eight weeks.

Brazil is forecast to export 800,000 tons of corn in the Oct.-Sept. 2000/01 year, making it a net exporter for the first time since 1982/83. An expected surge in production of nearly 18 percent has created a short term exportable surplus. However, bottlenecks at major ports could limit corn shipments over the next month as soybeans are really the priority export crop. Brazil recently made a large sale to the EU because it could supply approved varieties at a discounted price when Argentina was sold out. In addition, it has won a small share of other markets in which varieties approved for all uses are preferred.
Source: Grain: World Markets and Trade, March 2001

More supplemental AMTA payments this summer?
Plan on another round of supplemental AMTA payments by late summer. Congress included an additional $5.5 billion for emergency farm aid, less than the $9 billion for which many farm organizations had asked, in a budget resolution now nearing approval.

The $5.5 billion will fund another round of payments comparable to those received last September, based on the AMTA rates established for the 1999 crops.

Those payment rates are substantially higher (more than 25 percent) than the 2001 rates.
Source: Doane's Agricultural Report, May 4, 2001


Ag shares of U.S. exports falls
The share of agricultural products in total U.S. merchandise exports—6.7 percent in calendar year 2000—fell sharply from 9.8 percent in 1995.

In 2000, all agricultural shares of total U. S. exports to major foreign markets declined from 1995, as well as from 1991. Export shares of U.S. farm products to the European Union, China, and Mexico experienced the steepest declines from 1995.

An important reason for these drops was the abundant world supply of farm commodities. Another was the high exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of farm export competitors since 1997. Nevertheless, the agricultural share of total U.S. exports to Japan and China is still in double digits.

The share of agricultural products in total U.S. imports of goods in 2000 also narrowed to 3.2 percent from 4 percent in 1995. The most significant changes were for imports from Mexico and the EU. In general, the share of agriculture in total U.S. trade shrank as both exports and imports increased in the past decade.
Source: U.S. Agricultural Trade Update, March 26, 2001


Slight decline seen in fertilizer use
Total U. S. fertilizer nutrient use declined by 0.4 percent in 2000, according to a report from The Fertilizer Institute and the Association Of American Plant Food Control officials. There was a 1.2 percent reduction in nitrogen use, a 1 percent increase in phosphate use, and a 0.1 percent increase in potash use.
Source: Doane's Agricultural Report, April 27, 2001

Total meat consumption: 201 pounds per person
According to the latest statistics, in 1999, total meat consumption (red meat, poultry, fish, and shellfish) amounted to 201 pounds (boneless, trimmed-weight equivalent, unadjusted for waste and cooking losses) per person, 24 pounds above the 1970's annual average.

Each American consumed an average of 12 pounds less red meat (mostly beef), 33 pounds more poultry, and 3 pounds more fish and shellfish, compared with average annual consumption in the 1970s.
Source: FoodReview, Vol. 23, Issue 3, Sept.-Dec. 2000