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May 18, 2001

Wheat: Production
up, prospects mixed

By Lana Robinson
Field Editor

Texas wheat producers surveyed in April expect to harvest 93 million bushels this year. That's 41 percent above the drought-plagued 2000 crop, but 24 percent less than the 1999 crop. But with continued low prices, less wheat may be harvested than projected, according to Dr. Travis Miller, former state Extension small grains and soybean specialist who recently became the new associate department head and Extension program leader for soil and crop sciences at Texas A&M University.

"There's a lot of abandonment, and a lot of wheat is being put up in hay. I've seen a lot of round bales. Wheat is low priced and cattle prices are high. Looks like we could have a fairly short wheat crop," Miller reported on May 7, indicating that much wheat is likely to be grazed out.

Following a string of severe thunderstorms that pounded across some of the state's wheat-growing regions the previous weekend, Miller expressed some concern about lodging and layover on the damp ground, which can be harmful to the crop. However, he said he had not received any reports of hail or serious damage to the wheat.

"We do have a serious armyworm problem and it is widespread, in Central and West Texas. I was in a meeting in Abilene Friday (May 4) and that was a big topic there. A lot of other issues are affecting the crop. Much of it was put in late, and it's pretty thin. That hasn't helped prospects. In the Abilene area, they got the wheat in fairly early and they did have some good looking wheat, with above average yields. A number of fields, however, were planted short," he said.

Taylor County Extension Agent Gary Bomar confirmed that a good many producers—more than he recalls in the past—are considering making hay out of their wheat. Despite the good moisture, a lot of growers did not topdress wheat because the price of wheat did not justify the cost of fertilizer.

"Many knew they were going to harvest the wheat with a cow instead of a combine," said Bomar.

Overall, it's been a light year for grain mites, but striped rust, a rare disease that typically occurs every seven to 10 years, is back once again for the second consecutive year to aggravate wheat producers.

"It seems to be the combination of wet and cool weather. We've had fairly cool temperatures, a cool spring and lots of early moisture, but it's not as bad as last year," Travis Miller observed.

April numbers given by the Texas Agricultural Statistics Service pegged planted acreage for the 2001 crop at 5.7 million acres, down 5 percent from 2000 and down 8 percent from 1999.

TASS said production on the Northern High Plains is expected to total 39 million bushels, up 47 percent from a year ago.

The same report indicated that Blacklands producers expect to harvest 15 million bushels, down 31 percent from last year. Planted acres for the region, at 710,000 acres, were down 6 percent from the previous year.

Statewide winter wheat condition around April 1 was rated at 64 percent of normal, compared with 37 percent last year.

If the cooler temperatures persist, Miller said armyworms could recur in green wheat.

"Cooler weather fronts may cause another generation of worms," he suggested. "Normally, as weather warms up, that's the end of it. Cooler weather might trigger another generation."

More than anything, the crop needs sunshine, and that is pretty much the case statewide, he said.