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August 3, 2001

MARKETING

By Bryce Myrick
Director, TFB Agricultural Marketing Education

WEATHER-WEATHER-WEATHER

Now that we are in the hot days of summer, weather conditions will be the moving factor in commodity prices. Everyone knows planted acreage figures and what exports look like, but the big question is weather. Livestock futures will also be affected by weather conditions on corn.

Producers need to look for rallies to market this year's grains and cotton. Try, on a rally, to hedge one-third of your estimated production. As the market moves up, hedge another one-third. Many producers will not hedge the last one-third of estimated production because of uncertainty of yields.

Selling call options has potential of greatest return, but does not give producers as much downside protect as selling the futures. Remember, we are in a global market. Weather will affect all countries, not only ours.

To set up workshops or for help with your hedging needs, call 254-751-2242 or 915-698-0355 or e-mail: bbmyrick@swconnect.net

DECEMBER - CORN

Fundamentals: There seems to already be some crop damage.
Technical Analysis: Trend-Last 6 weeks Up, then pull back; Resistance-2.44; Support - 2.19 ½

DECEMBER - KC WHEAT

Fundamentals: Soft Red Spring Wheat will have bearing on Hard Red Winter Wheat prices.
Technical Analysis: Trend-Sideways; Resistance-3.33; Support-3.23

NOVEMBER - SOYBEANS

Fundamentals: Strong dollar has hurt exports-Brazilian projected October acres planted will have impact.
Technical Analysis: Trend-Up; Resistance-5.22; Support-4.85

DECEMBER - COTTON

Fundamentals: Weak U.S. demand-strong dollar hurts exports.
Technical Analysis: Trend-Down; Resistance-47.00; Support-$40.00