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October 5, 2001

The increased use of food each year is balanced by increasing productivity of existing cropland, adding of new cropland and increasing feed efficiencies for livestock and poultry. For much of the last 50 years, the concern has been that over time use would grow faster than production increases.

That has not happened and will not likely happen over the foreseeable future.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau and the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, the annual growth in world population has been slowing for the past 30 years.

In the mid-1960s world population growth averaged just over 2 percent per year, the peak growth rate for the 20th century. The forecast for the growth rate in 2005 is less than 1.2 percent. By 2013, the growth rate is expected to fall below 1.0 percent.

In absolute terms, we are also adding less people.

For 2001, the world population is expected to grow by about 77 million people. In the late 1980s, the population grew by about 87 million people per year.

That the population growth rate is slowing down is no surprise. Economists have noted for years that as incomes rise, the number of children per family generally goes down. Also, as the survival rate of children increases in developing countries, families generally have fewer children. The surprise is how rapidly the population growth rate is slowing.

All of this does not mean that the world is running out of people.

The world population will be 6.2 billion by the end of 2001. We had 5 billion in 1987. Current projections show us hitting 7 billion in 2012.

This also does not mean that some portions of the world are not having much faster population growth, or that there are not hungry people in the world who have little chance of near-term improvements in their diets.

While population growth has been slowing appreciably, increases in output per acre of food have been steady to higher.

Output per acre harvested worldwide is growing close to 1.5 percent per year, slightly faster than the 1.25 percent growth in population.

No additional cropland is needed to maintain the current level of diets worldwide.
Source: AFBF—Economic Forces Shaping 21^st Century U.S. Agriculture World Population Growth and Productivity Growth in Agriculture

LDP, marketing loan rules uncertain
Farmers without AMTA contracts so far are not eligible for loan deficiency payments or marketing loans on 2001 production.

Last year Congress made them eligible with an amendment to the crop insurance reform bill. Unless a similar amendment is part of the 2002 appropriations bill, or other related legislation yet to be passed this year, it won't happen for 2001 crops. All soybean producers, however, are eligible for the LDPs and marketing loans.

There also is the issue of getting AMTA payments out in the new fiscal year that begins Oct. 1, if Congress does not pass an appropriations bill before then. The payments depend on new appropriations.

Source: Doane's Agricultural Report, Sept. 14, 2001