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December 7, 2001

MARKETING

 

By Bryce Myrick
Director, TFB Agricultural Marketing Education

Where will Energy Futures Be in 2002?

Last November unleaded gasoline was 60 cents a gallon, and climbed to $1.10 by mid-summer. After trading at $34 a barrel in the summer of 2000, crude oil was trading at $27 a barrel last November. For most of 2001, oil traded in the $25 to $29 range, but has fallen to $18 this November. November 2001 saw natural gas futures trading at an unprecedented $8 to $10 per MCF. Today, natural gas is at a realistic $2.80 a MCF. Although propane futures were 50 cents a gallon last November, today they are 30 cents a gallon.

What does all of this mean?
If OPEC can come together and cut production, crude oil prices will climb. As oil moves higher, other energies tend to follow. Now may be the time to consider hedging your 2002 energies. If we can help you, please give us a call.

To set up workshops or for help with your hedging needs, call 254-751-2242 or 915-698-0355 or e-mail: bbmyrick@swconnect.com.

Crude Oil
Fundamentals: OPEC trying to encourage a 10 percent production cut.
Technical Analysis: Trend—Down/Resistance—24.00/Support—$18.00
Unleaded Gasoline
Fundamentals: Sept. 11 caused lower consumption—Where will the economy be next year?
Technical Analysis: Trend—Down/Resistance—83 cents/Support—50 cents
Natural Gas
Fundamentals: Oversupply of gas—What will winter weather be?
Technical Analysis: Trend—Short term—Flat/Resistance—3.30/Support—2.13
Propane

Fundamentals: Lower crude oil prices
Technical Analysis: Trend—Down/Resistance—42/Support—None