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Texas Agriculture Archive

June 7, 2002

Feast or Famine

By Lana Robinson
Field Editor

It's been one of those feast or famine years in terms of rainfall for the Lone Star State, with some areas having abundant moisture, while others are suffering severe deficiencies.

On May 28, Texas Wheat Growers Association Executive Assistant Jana Barrett reported that the wheat harvest was suspended in a 100-mile radius around Throckmorton and Abilene, where as much as two inches of rain per hour, along with some hail, fell the previous day.

"Basically, the harvest is in full swing to almost complete down in the Hill Country west and around Hillsboro and Waco," said Barrett. "North of the Dallas area, growers are looking at beginning their harvest in another week. They are behind because the weather has been really different for May than in past years. The high humidity days and cool temperatures kept the crop from drying out. They are typically in the fields by Memorial Day, but it's going to be into the first part of June before they can begin harvesting near Sherman and McKinney."

Conditions in North Texas in early May set the stages for high hatches of armyworms, according to Dr. Allen Knutson, Extension entomologist.

"We have had the highest moth catches in Texas this year than any other, which is unusual," Knutson reported in early May. "The adult armyworms are common but the caterpillars are not. The caterpillars are the ones that do the damage. Right now, the wheat is maturing and it is less susceptible to armyworms."

According to the May 10 crop report, issued by the Texas Agricultural Statistics Service, the Texas winter wheat crop is pegged at 80 million bushels, 26 percent lower than last year.

"That has to do with the drought condition," TWGA's Barrett noted. "They are expecting the average yield to be 32 bushels—down 2 bushels from last year. That is due to the lack of moisture early this year. There was a lot of crop abandonment in the Panhandle, especially north of Amarillo. The regions received some good rains this weekend (Memorial Day weekend)—two or three inches. That will probably help, but so many fields have already been abandoned prior to these rains. What's left will do well."

Barrett did have some good news to report on the topic of Karnal bunt, the fungal disease that gave Texas wheat growers fits in a number of counties last year.

"They started cutting down in San Saba and McCullough counties and got negative samples both in seed and in grain. Some spot cutting was done in the Rolling Plains, in the four new counties (Archer, Baylor, Throck-morton, Young) added to the quarantine last year, and they also all came back negative. That's good, since they had the right rains around the right time for Karnal bunt to sprout. Conditions seemed favorable for it, yet all the pre-cuts and samples came back clean this year, and they're about to wrap up in San Saba County," she said.

TASS forecast a 27 million bushel wheat crop for the Texas High Plains, which is 50 percent of what was cut last year.

"The low plains—the Rolling Plains—is expected to produce a 21 million bushel crop, down 10 percent, and the Cross Timbers wheat crop is down 43 percent," said Barrett. "The one bright note is the Blacklands, where growers are expected to make double of what they produced in 2001. They are up. The rest of the state is substantially down."

Even with twice the wheat crop, James Davis, Bell County Cooperative Extension agent, was not overly optimistic, calling it a "decent crop, not great, but good."

"The main problem with wheat this year is the crop price," said Davis. "If wheat was bringing $5.25 per bushel as it did 27 years ago everyone would be elated with the crop. But, at $2.75 per bushel this year, it is real hard to get excited about wheat."

On May 24, Davis said even if rain were to come (and it did), the yield potential for corn in the Blacklands would be below normal.

"Much of the corn is already starting to pollinate. The good point is the temperature has, for the most part, been below 90 degrees F for the past two weeks. As long as the temperature stays below 95 degrees F, we have a prayer to make at least part of a crop. If the temperature goes to 90 degrees or above, we can start writing all the corn crop off because the aflatoxin levels will go through the roof. Again rain will change this situation overnight," he said.

Central Texas watermelons are excellent with no disease or insect pressure. Grasshoppers are fast becoming a problem. Said Davis, "Summer grasses made fair to poor growth during May which is the time we make most of our forage production for summer grazing. This already has cattle producers concerned about hay prospects. However, a good general, soaking three inch rain will turn this situation around overnight. We need rain now."

Flooding and winds of up to 70 mph on Memorial Day ripped through parts of North Texas, including Parker County and Johnson County. In the preceding days, soil moisture was assessed as "poor to adequate." Forage producers were fertilizing warm season pastures; rye grasses were maturing; hay baling continued. Sweet potato planting and pine tree harvesting were underway. Also, peach trees continued to show great expectations.

In East Texas, soil moisture has also been short, although there has been scattered rainfall. Dry conditions have slowed pasture growth. Spray programs are active, hay baling is underway, and cattle conditions are very good. Vegetable harvesting has demonstrated average yields.

The rainfall situation in South Central Texas remains critical, with a mere .3 and .4 inches of rain for the year in Refugio and San Patricio counties. Fayette, Harris, and Montgomery counties were a bit better with close to 5 inches since January. Soil moisture problems are worsening, non-irrigated crops are suffering and pastures continue declining, said Terry Lockamy, district director. Lockamy suggested that rain now would likely be too late for some of the row crops to make it, but several days of slow, steady rain could possibly mean livestock producers could hang onto their herds. Harvest of carrots, spring onions, cucumbers and melons continues.

In Southwest Texas, soil moisture is short. Harvesting of wheat, oats, onions and potatoes is rapidly gaining momentum, but yields have been disappointing. Corn, cotton sorghum and peanuts are making good progress under heavy irrigation. The hay crop is below average.

Soil moisture is also short in Southeast Texas, according to the Texas Cooperative Extension Service. Conditions are characterized as "very dry." Non-irrigated crops are suffering; pastures will continue to decline without more rain. Some cattle are being supplemented with hay. The hay harvest is about 40 percent of normal; corn irrigation continues.

Nueces County Cooperative Extension Agent Harvey Buehring said he couldn't recall a drier spring in the 28 years he's lived in the Coastal Bend region. Buehring said the area had received only .6 of an inch for the year and reported a serious hay shortage. Too, the corn crops are very small and immature, with most areas reporting that knee-to-waist-high corn is trying to tassel. Land preparation for peanut planting continues. Ranges and pastures are in fair condition. Supplemental feeding of livestock has been necessary in some parts of the Coastal Bend.

Speaking of livestock, many Texas Cooperative Extension agents say producers have either cut a first crop of hay, prematurely, or have not even tried to get a first cutting. While producers aren't selling off cattle, yet, they are weaning the calves earlier, hoping for rain in the next couple of weeks.

Range conditions continue to decline in the Panhandle from the lack of adequate moisture. Soil moisture is very short. Wheat is requiring heavy amounts of irrigation to finish out. Corn planting is near complete. During the week preceding Memorial Day, isolated thunderstorms showered between one-half and three-quarters an inch of rain, but not nearly enough to alleviate the heavy irrigation demand, said Dr. Bob Robinson, district Extension director.

According to District Director Charles Neeb, up to 80 percent of the cattle had already been sold off in Culberson County in Far West Texas as a result of the drought late last month. Cotton farmers continued planting but were fighting drought. Sup-plemental feeding of livestock continued. Spring transplanted onions were in full development, but no bulbing at that time. Alfalfa regrowth for a second cutting was coming on strong, Neeb reported.

Also, dry weather conditions in the West Central Texas region are deteriorating the range and pasture conditions, said District Extension Director Scott Durham. Forage quantity and quality are becoming extremely poor, and livestock numbers continue to decline, he said. Some ranchers in West Texas lamented that the drought conditions in their area are worse than the 1950 dry spell. Cotton planting has begun on some irrigated acres, and, as noted earlier, some wheat harvesting has begun.

In the South Plains, most cotton producers are awaiting rainfall before continued planting because dry winds are depleting any existing moisture, said Jett Major, district Extension director. Dryland cotton planting is 25 percent complete. Corn planting is complete. Grain sorghum planting is 20 percent complete. Livestock are in good condition, he said.

Certain areas, such as the Stephenville vicinity in North Central Texas, have not been affected so much by drought. Even before heavy rains fell in Erath County on May 27 and 28, rainfall was adequate or even above average in the area, according to Dr. Steve Hammack, professor and Extension beef cattle specialist.

"Pasture conditions vary from poor to good, depending mostly on how producers have stocked and managed during the last several years," Hammack said. "Poor managers always seem to be short of grass, or close to it. Good managers stock at lower levels to allow adequate forage reserves for all but the most extreme droughts. Nature is not the only thing that determines pasture conditions."

In several parts of Texas, this year's drought is lingering from last year.

"If you have a drought one year, that's bad enough, but what if you have a drought the next year right behind that one? Then you have to make greater preparations, spend greater amounts of money or reduce your number of cattle. What if you have another one? It could turn into a catastrophe where you have to eliminate all your livestock," said Dr. Larry Boleman, livestock forage specialist.

Ranchers can plan and manage droughts as long as they are not recurring on a consistent basis, he said. The severity sets in when the droughts are sustained over a number of years. After a few years, however, there is nothing left to do but to depopulate the herd completely.

"You can't plan, you can't harvest, you can't do anything," Boleman said. "Whereas, you could sustain yourself a little bit if you had some breakup in (the droughts)."