marketing, Aug. 2, 2002

				Return to TFB Main Page Return to Current Edition Texas Agriculture Archive August 2, 2002 MARKETING By Bryce Myrick Director, TFB Agricultural Marketing Education

				Look, we are having a grain market driven upward by weather conditions in the mid-west. After excessive rains in the spring, the Corn Belt is dry and cannot buy a rain. As grain yields deteriorate, prices are going up. September Hard Red Winter Wheat has gone up from $2.90 a bushel in May to $3.70, while December Corn has gone from $2.20 to $2.50. November Soybeans have gone up from $4.50 a bushel in May to $5.50, and September Rough Rice from $3.90 to $5.00. What do we do now? Hedge. While prices may go higher, it seems a prudent marketing plan would be to sell or lock in at least half of this year's crop. Weather can change quickly and foreign producers may have bumper crops. It is always hard to get reliable crop projections out of China. Brazil, Argentina, and Australia will be getting ready to plant crops in the next 60 days. One thing to consider is the option of selling part of next year's crops at these prices. That would give you a selling price before you even planted next year.
				SEPTEMBER - KC WHEAT

				*Fundamentals:* Exports Good - World Supply Low *Technical Analysis:* Trend - Up / Resistance - Broke Above / Support - 2.85
				DECEMBER - CORN

				*Fundamentals:* Weather *Technical Analysis:* Trend - Up / Resistance - Broke Above / Support - 2.32
				NOVEMBER - SOYBEANS

				*Fundamentals:* Weather - August Key Month *Technical Analysis:* Trend - Up / Resistance - None / Support - 4.67
				SEPTEMBER - ROUGH RICE

				*Fundamentals:* Exports Good *Technical Analysis:* Trend - Up / Resistance - 5.01 / Support 4.36