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Texas Agriculture Archive

November 1, 2002

MARKETING

By Bryce Myrick
Director, TFB Agricultural Marketing Education

As we look forward to 2003, which commodities look like they could out perform 2002 prices? Your first reaction may be that all commodities could be higher because agriculture commodity prices have been low for a long time.

We need to ask ourselves three questions regarding agriculture prices: 1) Where are prices now? 2) Why are prices where they are now? 3) What could change prices next year? Let's start with grain markets. Right now we have good prices in corn, beans, and wheat. The reason these prices are good is mainly because of the drought in the Grain Belt. As far as 2003 prices, if we have rain in the Corn Belt next spring and summer, chances are grains will go back down. Storing grains does not look profitable.

In livestock markets, we are at low prices because we have too much protein in the world market at this time. Our 2003 economy will affect livestock prices more than grain prices. There is a need to increase exports of protein. Supply does not look to be going down enough to push prices up. To be good marketers, we need to start analyzing 2003 markets now.

DECEMBER - COTTON

Fundamentals: Don't be surprised if crop bigger than projected.
Technical Analysis: Trend - Sideways / Resistance - .50 / Support - 42.50

DECEMBER - LIVE CATTLE

Fundamentals: Higher feed costs and large supply of protein.
Technical Analysis: Trend - Up / Resistance - 73.20 / Support - 69.00

DECEMBER - KC WHEAT

Fundamentals: Increased acres will be planted in wheat.
Technical Analysis: Trend - Up / Resistance 4.94 / Support 4. 40

DECEMBER - CORN

Fundamentals: Drought not as bad as July projection.
Technical Analysis: Trend - Sideways / Resistance 2.88 / Support - 2.45