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Texas Agriculture Archive

November 7, 2003

By Bryce Myrick
Director, TFB Agricultural Marketing Education

The world supply and demand theory still works. Bull markets are started when a greater demand pursues a limited supply.

Never in history have you seen $1 Fat Cattle, 80 cent cotton, and $7 soybeans at the same time. What is ironic is that six months ago none of the prices were forecast. Although the prices may not continue, and probably will not, all three commodities look like we may have excellent prices for the rest of 2003 and into 2004.

The question producers now face is, "At what price do we market our commodities?" With these prices, NOW appears a good time to hedge or market at least part of your production. Although prices may go higher, locking in commodities at this level is a prudent decision. Do not let any of these commodities pull back 20 to 25 percent in value without having some form of risk management protection. Call me if you have any questions, and remember—do not get greedy.

DECEMBER - LIVE CATTLE

Fundamentals: Big packer demand, green cattle being sold out of the yards.

Technical Analysis: Trend - Up; Resistance - 91.90; Support - 86.80

DECEMBER - CORN

Fundamentals: Soybeans pulling up corn
Technical Analysis: Trend - Short term turned up; Resistance - 2.47; Support - 2.13

DECEMBER - COTTON

Fundamentals: China and India have production problems
Technical Analysis: Trend - Up; Resistance - None - Broke out; Support - 64.50

DECEMBER - SOYBEANS