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Texas Agriculture Archive

March 5, 2004

By Bryce Myrick
Director, TFB Agricultural Marketing Education

USDA is projecting 14.74 million acres will be planted in cotton. This is a 9.5 percent increase over last year's acreage. While U.S. cotton producers continue to look at U.S. cotton production and export numbers to figure out future prices, there is one factor outside our border where we have no control—China.

With 14.74 million acres planted and average weather conditions, the crop could be 19-20 million bales. Factor in China may have a 22-23 million bale crop and we could have a huge world cotton crop. Then the only other determining factor for price is world consumption. This gives us an equation that is one-half bearish (production) and the other one-half (consumption) unknown.

A prudent marketing plan may be to sell October cotton calls on any upward price movement in the next couple of months. This would give you flexibility to then use the December futures later. If you have any questions, please call me at 254-715-5055.

JULY - KC WHEAT

Fundamentals: Southern Plains growing area hurting for moisture
Technical Analysis: Trend -Up; Resistance - 3.90; Support - 3.50

JUNE - LIVE CATTLE

Fundamentals: Packer chain speed slowing down
Technical Analysis: Trend - Down; Resistance - 72.20; Support -68.50

AUGUST - SOYBEANS

Fundamentals: Bird flu in Asia could hurt bean exports
Technical Analysis: Trend - Up; Resistance - 8.00; Support - 6.78

JULY - COTTON

Fundamentals: Higher planted acreage
Technical Analysis: Trend - Down; Resistance - 77.80; Support - 64.50