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Texas Agriculture Archive

March 19, 2004

By Bryce Myrick
Director, TFB Agricultural Marketing Education

Have commodity prices already set their high for 2004?

December cotton futures have traded this year at 70 cents. Although China continues to be a big cotton importer, they hope to increase production considerably. With increased cotton planting acreage intentions in the U.S., have we already seen the high in cotton?

In January, July KC Wheat traded for $4.08 and the first of March, July Corn traded for $3.09 a bushel. With limited moisture for winter wheat and a big export demand for corn, both of these grains traded at excellent prices. It is easy to imagine that come early summer, these will be lower.

On March 5, fat cattle were trading at $85. Except for some markets, mainly Japan and Korea, BSE (bovine spongiform encephalopathy) seems to be behind us. Domestic beef consumption has remained strong and cattle numbers look lower. With that in mind, cattle prices might not have reached their years' high, but $85 is still $85.

If you have any marketing needs, please give me a call at 254-715-5055.

To set up workshops or for help with your hedging needs, call 254-751-2242 or 915-698-0355 or e-mail: bbmyrick@swconnect.com.

APRIL - LIVE CATTLE

Fundamentals: Strong demand for boxed beef
Technical Analysis: Trend - Up since BSE fallout/Resistance - 80.85; Support - 77.70

DECEMBER - COTTON

Fundamentals: China expanding textile industry
Technical Analysis: Trend - Sideways/ Resistance - 68.40; Support -64.50

JULY - CORN

Fundamentals: Corn planting acres will increase
Technical Analysis: Trend - Up/Resistance - 3.07; Support - 2.78

JULY - KC WHEAT

Fundamentals: Good rains in the Southern Plains
Technical Analysis: Trend - Sideways to weak/Resistance - 3.97; Support - 3.55