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Texas Agriculture Archive

May 7, 2004

By Bryce Myrick
Director, TFB Agricultural Marketing Education

When you look at today's prices of soybeans, corn, wheat, and rice, all are substantially higher than last year at this time. The question now is where will these prices be in December?

With a weakening U.S. dollar, the U.S. export market in grains is very strong. When the export market believes the U.S. dollar has bottomed out, exports could explode.

While exports, weather, and harvest pressure will have an effect on prices, hedging or forward contracting grains now seems to be a prudent marketing decision. The crop that looks like it has a good upside potential for the rest of the year is wheat.

A good marketing strategy may be to sell wheat and buy a December call to participate if there is a strong increasing fall market. Another strategy may be to sell one-half your crop and put the rest in storage. If you wish to discuss these two options, call me at (254) 715-5055.

DECEMBER - COTTON

Fundamentals: Export market will be key to price
Technical Analysis: Trend - Down; Resistance - 68.90; Support - 63.70

SEPTEMBER - CORN

Fundamentals: From here on weather will be the key
Technical Analysis: Trend - Up; Resistance - 3.40; Support - 2.99

SEPTEMBER - FEEDER CATTLE

Fundamentals: October live
Technical Analysis: Trend - Up; Resistance - None; Support - 86.50

JULY - KC WHEAT

Fundamentals: Crop condition on Plains continues to deteriorate
Technical Analysis: Trend - Short Term Down; Resistance - 4.28; Support - 3.64