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Texas Agriculture Archive

October 15, 2004

MARKETING

Now is the time of year many of you are considering buying stockers for winter grazing. If you look at the charts below, something should jump out at you. Stockers are expensive, fat cattle are mid $80s and corn is cheap.

Does this make you nervous? It should! This week Fat Cattle are coming out of the yard at $84, and many are losing money. Two years ago, if I had said fats would now be $84, everyone would have thought we would be making good money. So what happened? Lots of things. Are cattle prices going to stay at current prices? — I say, "No!"

Over the next couple of months, I will be doing workshops to explain why I say no and how to protect these prices. The workshops will focus on futures, options, cattle insurance, forward contracting, and how to use corn futures as a cattle hedge.

If you would like to have a workshop in your county, please call me at (254) 715-5055. Bryce Myrick.

To set up workshops or for help with your hedging needs, call 254-751-2242 or 915-698-0355 or e-mail: bbmyrick@swconnect.com.

By Bryce Myrick
Director, TFB Agricultural Marketing Education

OCTOBER - FEEDER CATTLE

DECEMBER - CORN

Fundamentals: Huge crop potential
Technical Analysis: Trend - Down; Resistance - 2.44; Support - none

Fundamentals: Cheap corn - Strong Demand
Technical Analysis: Trend - Up; Resistance - 1.14; Support - 1.06

APRIL - LIVE CATTLE

DECEMBER - LEAN HOGS

Fundamentals: Demand shrinking - Low packer margins
Technical Analysis: Trend - Up; Resistance - 87.70; Support - 84.90

Fundamentals: Strong Demand
Technical Analysis: Trend - Up; Resistance - 68.95; Support - 60.50