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By Lana Robinson
Field Editor
USDA has projected that Texas will lead U.S. pecan production this year with an estimated harvest of 50 million pounds, but inside estimates suggest the Lone Star crop could exceed 65 million pounds. A delayed harvest, an initial national crop forecast that was lower than in 2003, and hurricanes in Georgia and the Southeast that cut it even more have resulted in improved prices for producers.
"USDA was already forecasting a 200 million pound crop versus 285 million pounds a year ago, which means 25 percent less from the start," said Jose Peña, Texas Cooperative Extension economist in Uvalde. "The hurricanes have dropped it another 20 million, resulting in a 35 percent lower crop. Carry-in stocks are high, but a whole lot lower than a year ago, so supplies are tight. So a short crop and even shorter because of the hurricanes has caused prices to improve."
According to Peña, the Texas Pecan Belt starts in Gonzales County, runs east to San Antonio and then straight north before veering off west of Waco.
"The heart of Texas pecan production is west of Waco. About 70 percent of production is in that area. Then it jumps to Pecos down to El Paso. The West Texas region produces very good quality pecans because it is dry, but has good irrigation and long sunshiny days, which results in a higher-yielding, better-quality pecan," he said. "But the major production is west of Waco and southwest of Fort Worth."
Peña said with the holidays coming up, prices are also higher entering this peak marketing season.
"Price bids for the early harvest of high-quality pecans are being influenced by gift pack and fund-raiser markets and for high-end products, such as fruit cakes, desserts, cookies and ice creams," he added.
Pecans are bringing $1.50 per pound to $2 per pound at the farm level, depending on the variety and quality, Peña said. New crop pecan halves have been priced at about $6-$7 per pound at the retail level, up from $4.50-$5.50 per pound in 2003. But Peña expects those prices to "settle down" to just 20 to 30 cents higher than a year ago, especially with a record peanut crop forecast in the 2.213 billion pound range.
"Abundant supplies of peanuts will keep pecans in line. The pecans are maybe 10 percent to 15 percent above the price of almonds and walnuts, but they won't be way out of line, certainly in terms of value," Peña said.
Peña said the price in the industry is really set by the processor, which fares well for pecans.
"Eighty-eight percent of pecans are consumed through value-added products, such as ice cream, coffee cake, cookies, pies, candies, and other desserts," he noted.
Since 1995, average annual domestic consumption of pecans has averaged 278 million pounds and average exports since 1993 are 54.1 million pounds, Peña said.
Besides their popularity for flavor and traditional holiday use, Peña touted the health benefits of pecans, praising the fact that pecans are cholesterol- and sodium-free and 25 percent higher in oleic acid than an equivalent serving of olive oil.
Harvest activities have been delayed in all states due to weather. Other western states are slightly behind Texas in terms of harvest progress, but also expect good crops in 2004.
"Most of the states are reporting excellent quality," he said. "About 72 percent (136.6 million pounds) of the U.S. crop is forecast to be produced in these western states."
Harvest estimates for those states are: Arizona, 13 million pounds; California, 2.2 million pounds; Kansas, 2.5 million pounds; New Mexico, 37 million pounds; and Oklahoma, 28 million pounds.
Peña said the Georgia forecast has been revised to 40 million pounds from 60 million before the hurricanes. He explained that high winds from hurricanes Frances and Ivan battered pecan trees in Georgia and Florida, reducing the crop by 40 percent and uprooting thousands of trees.
"I'm certainly not unsympathetic to those producers who lost trees, but the whole industry needed some adjustment," Peña said. "Hopefully, it will be restructured with more modern varieties..."
