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By Dr. M. Ray Perryman
While the U.S. and Texas economies experienced a slight slowdown through the late spring and summer, recently released data indicates continual improvement in the pace of growth.
Significant uncertainties still remain, specifically the war in Iraq and terrorists' threats, but the economies of the nation and the state are favorably positioned. Although the agricultural industry is a small part of the Texas economy, it is a vital element and highly important to the economic health of the state.
There are now approximately 140,000 individuals across Texas involved in farming, ranching, commercial fishing, forestry, hunting and trapping, and related services. This number reflects an addition of some 4,500 workers since 1999, a 3.29 percent gain and about 1.39 percent of the total amount of current jobs in Texas.
In 1999, 61.28 percent of individuals employed in the agricultural industry were located in the 27 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), which encompass 59 of the state's 254 counties. In 2004, metros accounted for 60.12 percent of the total agricultural jobs in the state.
There were 19 metropolitan statistical areas with increases in agricultural workers over the five-years from 1999 to 2004. The largest gain was in the eight-county Dallas MSA with an increase of about 500 jobs. The four-county Fort Worth-Arlington MSA had a loss of 400 agricultural jobs during this period.
Growth of more than 7,600 agricultural workers, or a 5.52 percent expansion, is expected over the next five years throughout Texas. During the 2004-2009 period, all MSAs are projected to see gains in employment in the agricultural sector, with 11 metros anticipated to achieve hikes in excess of the state percentage.
The Sherman-Denison area is forecast to experience the largest expansion at 5.97 percent. Percentage increases for the other metros are predicted to range from 4.59 percent to 5.94 percent. The percentage of the state's total agricultural jobs located in the metro areas in 2004, 60.12 percent, will likely be duplicated in 2009.
In 1999, the Texas agricultural real gross product (RGP or output) was $11.54 billion. In 2004, the RGP output was $12.56 billion, or about 1.69 percent of the total output of the state in 2004. Of this amount, the state's metros generated 36.57 percent.
In 2009, the expected agricultural RGP will be $14.39 billion, representing 1.58 percent of the state's aggregate output and reflecting a 2.75 percent compound annual growth rate over the five-year period. The 27 MSAs are projected to generate $5.23 billion or 36.34 percent of the total Texas agricultural real gross product in 2009. About $3.12 billion is projected to be provided by the six major metros—Austin-San Marcos, Dallas, El Paso, Fort Worth-Arlington, Houston, and San Antonio. The Houston metro is forecast to have the largest agricultural output with $1.09 billion.
While employment and output in the agricultural industry are projected to achieve modest growth over the next five years, continuing global demand for agricultural products and emerging technology to enhance value and efficiency bode well for the future of Texas agricultural industry over the long term.
