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History tells us that after the fall harvest and before the end of spring, cotton and grains have a price rally. Usually, the highest prices of the year fall in this time period. Then, prices head lower from about May 1 until harvest, unless there is a major weather problem.
Last year, you could have marketed your 2004 crops for excellent prices in March and April; cotton for about 60 cents, wheat near $4, beans - $8, and corn near $3.
Today, I think you should consider marketing at least one-half of your estimated production before the end of April. Consider selling some October cotton at 58 cents, calls for 3 cents plus. This would not give you much downside protection, but you could also have the flexibility to roll into December futures.
Selling KC Wheat _ July $3.50 calls also may be advantageous. Corn should be forward contracted by May 15. Lots of acres could roll from beans to corn because of rust fear.
By Bryce Myrick
Director, TFB Agricultural Marketing Education
To set up workshops or for help with your hedging needs, call 254-751-2242 or 915-698-0355 or e-mail: bbmyrick@swconnect.com.
SEPTEMBER - CORN
Fundamentals: Bean acres rolled to corn could have a major price impact
Technical
Analysis: Trend - Short term up; Resistance - 2.38; Support - 2.18
OCTOBER - LIVE CATTLE
OCTOBER - COTTON
Fundamentals: Trade could be positive or negative
Technical
Analysis: Trend - Sideways; Resistance - 84.60; Support - 82.40
Fundamentals: World Trade Organization (WTO) rulings will influence
Technical Analysis:
Trend - Up; Resistance - 57.10; Support - 47.50
