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Texas Agriculture Archive

April 21, 2006

Wheat prospects dim
as season progresses

By Bobby Horecka
Field Editor

As drought conditions linger, Rodney Mosier has watched as wheat crop conditions have grown from gangly to outright grim.

According to the April 1 survey released by the National Agriculture Statistics Service (NASS), Texas wheat producers will harvest less than half of what they did in the last two years, despite having planted nearly a quarter million more acres.

But the worst could still be yet to come, said Mosier, the executive vice president for the Texas Wheat Producers Board.

"So much of our crop didn't come up in a timely fashion this year due to the lack of moisture," he said. "What did finally come up in some areas was too late. We didn't have enough hot and cold days for the grain to properly vernalize, which allows wheat to make grain. It doesn't look good for our farmers out there."

Given the conditions, NASS is projecting a wheat harvest of 41 million bushels in Texas—roughly 57 percent less than the 2005 crop and 62 percent less than the 2004 crop.

And that may only be the tip of the iceberg, Extension crop specialist Travis Miller said.

"The drought did a number on us," he said. "Many of the main wheat growing areas of the state went for 130-140 days without any rain. For those that finally got some, it was too little, too late."

The lack of rainfall meant missed grazing opportunities statewide and measly yield possibilities across the board. Adding insult to injury, a freeze in the third week of February blew through, damaging what little had managed to weather the drought.

Most of those late freeze damages have yet to be accounted for in the NASS projections, Miller said. "They're targeting a 50 million bushel harvest, but I don't think we'll even make that much."

Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas are the primary winter wheat crop states, Mosier said. And with Texas and Oklahoma in the same shape weather-wise, all eyes are focusing on the Kansas crop.

"We're looking at a weather market," Mosier said. "The crop losses have pushed the price of wheat over $4 a bushel, but if Kansas manages to make a good crop, that price could be right back down quickly."

A few farmers have opted to plant their acreage to another crop, Mosier said, leaving the crop-insurance-required 10-foot swath of wheat standing along one side of the field and sinking corn, sorghum or cotton into the rest.

But in Miller's view, the replanting process may well be "throwing good money after bad."

"Our moisture conditions prevented us from making a good stand of wheat in many areas of the state, and for the most part, we haven't received enough rain in recent weeks to make much of a difference when it comes to other crops," he said.

Further complicating the equation are the substantially higher costs of fuel and fertilizer this year, which is forcing farmers to rethink planting and irrigation methods, as well as limit life-giving nutrient applications in many cases.

The Northern High Plains, which comprises the bulk of the Texas breadbasket, will harvest about 21.5 million bushels in 2006, NASS reports, down 62 percent from 2005. The bulk of the crop is hard red winter wheat, used for bread flours and in Texas, primarily export markets, Miller said.

The Blacklands region, which grows primarily soft red winter wheat used for cake and pastry flours, will likely harvest 6.5 million acres—the only region in Texas to mark a 5 percent growth over last year's harvest.

"We'll just have to see how it all plays out," Travis said. "What the entire state needs right now is some rain, and not just an inch or two. We're still a long way from harvest and a lot could happen, but it's definitely not looking good now."